[DB] WILL THE SHORTER BUSINESS CYCLE LEAD TO RECESSION IN 2012?

The latest report by Deutsche Bank has said that the data given in the past proved America will fall into a new recession in 2012. Their data says that the process of expansion is the process to terminate. From 1854, the average expansion of production processes (growth) extended range of 40 months. Since the Great Depression (1930), the average course lasts 59 months. In the last 7 Wonders expansion, most of the cycle lasted 70 months. With 27 months in the current cycle, it seems this is a shorter development period than in the past data.

 

 The graph shows the length of time was nearly hit in 1854, this means expanding the cycle has ended.
DB said that the three super-cycle expansion between 1982-2007 is the finite case. The cycle expansion increasingly short, because the elements Globalization, competitive price. If such predictions are correct, in 2012, extended cycle will end and the crisis period will start happening